Machine Learning for Crypto Portfolio Management Case Study: Week 9

This was the ninth week of our case study that will evaluate the application of machine learning for portfolio management. The methodology for this study was first outlined in our previous article.

Each week, we will publish an update to highlight interesting events that took place over the last week, break down the performance metrics from the last week, and provide any changes that will be made to each portfolio.

As BTC continues to steal the show, Nomics has been able to maintain dominance with Shrimpy and the Smart Contracts Index in a close race for 2nd.

Shrimpy ML Strategy

The Shrimpy ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Shrimpy ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

Shrimpy predictions left a lot to be desired this week, with most of the predictions actually performing negatively. RFOX was a sleeper pick and did most of the heavy lifting to bring this portfolio into profitability this week.

Portfolio Allocations

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the ninth week of this study.

1. CashBet Coin (CBC): Projected 7-day profit: +38.94%
2. Huobi Token (HT): Projected 7-day profit: +37.63%
3. DigitalBits (XDB): Projected 7-day profit: +36.58%
4. Formation Fi (FORM): Projected 7-day profit: +31.65%
5. Velo (VELO): Projected 7-day profit: +30.36%
6. Lympo (LYM): Projected 7-day profit: +25.36%
7. RedFOX Labs (RFOX): Projected 7-day profit: +25.10%
8. Phantasma (SOUL): Projected 7-day profit: +24.08%
9. Opacity (OPCT): Projected 7-day profit: +21.52%
10. Nimiq (NIM): Projected 7-day profit: +21.42%

The average projected 7-day profit is +29.26%.

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the tenth week of this study.

1. CashBet Coin (CBC): Projected 7-day profit: +950.16%
2. Dogelon Mars (ELON): Projected 7-day profit: +154.28%
3. OMG Network (OMG): Projected 7-day profit: +69.62%
4. Lossless (LSS): Projected 7-day profit: +65.40%
5. Shiba Inu (SHIB): Projected 7-day profit: +54.74%
6. Presearch (PRE): Projected 7-day profit: +48.72%
7. Apollo Currency (APL): Projected 7-day profit: +48.61%
8. Velo (VELO): Projected 7-day profit: +38.99%
9. ARPA Chain (ARPA): Projected 7-day profit: +36.86%
10. Hot Cross (HOTCROSS): Projected 7-day profit: +28.71%

The average projected 7-day profit is +149.60%.

Portfolio Starting Value

The Shrimpy ML Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Try the Shrimpy ML Forecasts

Disclaimer: Shrimpy’s price forecasts are for entertainment purposes only.

Shrimpy offers machine learning price forecasts for all customers. These forecasts are generated using our own Machine Learning models, and price forecasts are updated every day (00:00 UTC) using the last 90 days of daily close prices. Viewing these forecasts is possible by visiting our trading terminal at shrimpy.io.

Sign up for Shrimpy to try them out by clicking here.

Nomics ML Strategy

The Nomics ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Nomics ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

Nomics was the worst performing portfolio this week. Even though they fell short of their predictions, BTC, SHIB and FTM kept this portfolio from performing negatively.

Portfolio Allocations

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the ninth week of this study.

1. Shiba Inu (SHIB): Projected 7-day profit: +48.52%
2. Fantom (FTM): Projected 7-day profit: +43.58%
3. Harmony (ONE): Projected 7-day profit: +37.31%
4. Bitcoin SV (BSV): Projected 7-day profit: +19.46%
5. Bitcoin (BTC): Projected 7-day profit: +13.81%
6. Decred (DCR): Projected 7-day profit: +13.68%
7. Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Projected 7-day profit: +9.75%
8. XRP (XRP): Projected 7-day profit: +8.44%
9. NEM (XEM): Projected 7-day profit: +8.03%
10. Stellar (XLM): Projected 7-day profit: +6.92%

The average projected 7-day profit is 20.95%.

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the tenth week of this study.

1. Polkadot (DOT): Projected 7-day profit: +27.13%
2. Shiba Inu (SHIB): Projected 7-day profit: +25.06%
3. Binance Coin (BNB): Projected 7-day profit: +18.24%
4. The Graph (GRT): Projected 7-day profit: +17.39%
5. Curve DAO Token (CRV): Projected 7-day profit: +16.73%
6. Stellar (XLM): Projected 7-day profit: +16.41%
7. Zcash (ZEC): Projected 7-day profit: +15.38%
8. Polygon (MATIC): Projected 7-day profit: +14.65%
9. Fantom (FTM): Projected 7-day profit: +13.86%
10. Ethereum (ETH): Projected 7-day profit: +12.94%

The average projected 7-day profit is 17.79%.

Portfolio Starting Value

The Nomics ML Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Decentralized Finance Index Strategy

The Coin Market Cap DeFi Index Strategy uses the asset market caps combined with the Decentralized Finance asset tag that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

The DeFi sector seems to be showing signs of life again. AVAX, FTM and XTZ all had great price action which puts this portfolio at 2nd for performance this week.

Portfolio Allocations

1. Uniswap (UNI): 19.12% Allocation (adjusted from 22.15%)
2. Terra (LUNA): 17.47% Allocation (adjusted from 18.11%)
3. Avalanche (AVAX): 14.70% Allocation (adjusted from 9.92%)
4. Chainlink (LINK): 14.25% Allocation (adjusted from 15.18%)
5. Fantom (FTM): 6.95% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)
6. Tezos (XTZ): 6.93% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)
7. Pancake Swap (CAKE): 5.58% Allocation (adjusted from 6.75%)
8. AAVE (AAVE): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.34%)
9. The Graph (GRT): 5% Allocation
10. Maker (MKR): 5% Allocation

Removed

Sushiswap (SUSHI)
Compound (COMP)

Portfolio Starting Value

The DeFi Index Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Smart Contracts Index Strategy

The Coin Market Cap Smart Contracts Index Strategy uses the asset market caps combined with the Smart Contracts asset tag that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

When you consider that this portfolio contains a combination of almost all of the assets that did well in each of the other portfolios, it’s no surprise to see the Smart Contracts portfolio taking the top spot for performance this week and reclaiming the “First behind Nomics” mantle.

Portfolio Allocations

1. Ethereum (ETH): 25% Allocation (adjusted from 25.01%)
2. Cardano (ADA): 25% Allocation
3. Avalanche (AVAX): 8.34% Allocation (adjusted from 6.11%)
4. Chainlink (LINK): 8.08% Allocation (adjusted from 9.36%)
5. Algorand (ALGO): 7.22% Allocation (adjusted from 5%)
6. Stellar (XLM): 6.20% Allocation (adjusted from 6.69%)
7. VeChain (VET): 5.16% Allocation (adjusted from 6.31%)
8. Ethereum Classic (ETC): 6.52% Allocation (adjusted from 6.55%)
9. Fantom (FTM): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)
10. Tezos (XTZ): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)

Removed

NEO (NEO)
EOS (EOS)

Portfolio Starting Value

The Smart Contracts Index Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Conclusions

NFT’s are the current “big thing” and as such, portfolios that provide coverage in this sector are reaping the rewards. Concurrently, sectors that have begun to stagnate have started to see their value flowing into BTC as it approaches a new round of price discovery — and many newly flipped supports are being tested as a result. Meanwhile, Nomics and Shrimpy both have begun to show cracks in their prediction methodology. While we can’t predict the future, it’s exciting to see if Nomics and Shrimpy’s Machine Learning models can adjust to the new market conditions or if Indices will use this opening to make up for lost ground and really steal the show.

We recommend you check back every week to see how the results are progressing! To keep up to date with the latest articles, you can also join our Discord Group or follow us on Twitter.

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About us

Shrimpy is an automated portfolio management platform that helps cryptocurrency investors manage their capital through the use of a simple and intuitive app that saves time and money with the power of automation.

To find out more about our platform and discover how it can jumpstart your crypto journey, feel free to visit our main website.

We also provide free blockchain education to the masses at the Shrimpy Academy and Youtube.