Machine Learning for Crypto Portfolio Management Case Study: Week 6

This was the sixth week of our case study that will evaluate the application of machine learning for portfolio management. The methodology for this study was first outlined in our previous article.

Each week, we will publish an update to highlight interesting events that took place over the last week, break down the performance metrics from the last week, and provide any changes that will be made to each portfolio.

China has yet again banned all cryptocurrency transactions and the market has predictably suffered due to the selling pressure as Chinese investors exit cryptocurrencies for assets with more regulatory clarity and safety. That said, none of the portfolios did exceptionally poorly this week — maintaining balances above the previous dips drawdown point for the duration of the week. The Nomics portfolio maintains a commanding lead in performance, while the other 3 portfolios struggle to stay in “profitable” territory under bearish conditions.

Shrimpy ML Strategy

The Shrimpy ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Shrimpy ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

The Shrimpy portfolio was able to maintain its balance throughout the week and while it didn’t gain any ground, it didn’t lose any either which is commendable considering the bombshell filled with bears that were dropped on the market this week. Shrimpy is currently in 4th place in performance.

Portfolio Allocations

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the sixth week of this study.

1. APENFT (NFT): Projected 7-day profit: +582.33%
2. Oasis Network (ROSE): Projected 7-day profit: +262.50%
3. Fantom (FTM): Projected 7-day profit: +116.39%
4. MoonStarter (MNST): Projected 7-day profit: +92.31%
5. Algorand (ALGO): Projected 7-day profit: +83.91%
6. Ren (REN): Projected 7-day profit: +67.86%
7. Tezos (XTZ): Projected 7-day profit: +62.00%
8. Horizen (ZEN): Projected 7-day profit: +61.40%
9. V-ID (VIDT): Projected 7-day profit: 56.93%
10. Quant (QNT): Projected 7-day profit: +50.10%

The average projected 7-day profit is +143.57%.

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the seventh week of this study.

1. Ren (REN): Projected 7-day profit: +95.84%
2. Zel (FLUX): Projected 7-day profit: +95.54%
3. Algorand (ALGO): Projected 7-day profit: +83.71%
4. Aleph.im (ALEPH): Projected 7-day profit: +66.50%
5. Kadena (KDA): Projected 7-day profit: +60.01%
6. The Forbidden Forest (FORESTPLUS): Projected 7-day profit: +45.32%
7. The Crypto Prophecies (TCP): Projected 7-day profit: +42.03%
8. Combo (COMB): Projected 7-day profit: +41.40%
9. Unizen (ZCX): Projected 7-day profit: +40.18%
10. Cosmos (ATOM): Projected 7-day profit: +38.80%

The average projected 7-day profit is +60.93%.

Portfolio Starting Value

The Shrimpy ML Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Try the Shrimpy ML Forecasts

Disclaimer: Shrimpy’s price forecasts are for entertainment purposes only.

Shrimpy offers machine learning price forecasts for all customers. These forecasts are generated using our own Machine Learning models, and price forecasts are updated every day (00:00 UTC) using the last 90 days of daily close prices. Viewing these forecasts is possible by visiting our trading terminal at shrimpy.io.

Sign up for Shrimpy to try them out by clicking here.

Nomics ML Strategy

The Nomics ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Nomics ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

The Nomics portfolio had a solid week, it had the second-best weekly performance of the 4 portfolios. As mentioned previously, under extremely bearish conditions — any positive performance is commendable. Has Nomics finally found its niche in picking assets that do well under bearish sentiment?

Portfolio Allocations

Each of the following assets was allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the sixth week of this study.

1. Quant (QNT): Projected 7-day profit: +69.16%
2. NEAR Protocol(NEAR): Projected 7-day profit: +52.53%
3. Harmony (ONE): Projected 7-day profit: +50.45%
4. Solana (SOL): Projected 7-day profit: +40.52%
5. Fantom (FTM): Projected 7-day profit: +40.11%
6. Terra(LUNA): Projected 7-day profit: +29.63%
7. OMG Network (OMG): Projected 7-day profit: +27.08%
8. Avalanche (AVAX): Projected 7-day profit: +20.11%
9. Cosmos (ATOM): Projected 7-day profit: +15.33%
10. IOST (IOST): Projected 7-day profit: +15.31%

The average projected 7-day profit is +36.02%.

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the seventh week of this study.

1. XinFin Network (XDC): Projected 7-day profit: +31.05%
2. Tezos (XTZ): Projected 7-day profit: +18.52%
3. Axie Infinity (AXS): Projected 7-day profit: +15.54%
4. Harmony (ONE): Projected 7-day profit: +14.68%
5. Sushiswap (SUSHI): Projected 7-day profit: +13.14%
6. Celo (CELO): Projected 7-day profit: +10.66%
7. Luna (LUNA): Projected 7-day profit: +8.72%
8. Uniswap Protocol Token (UNI): Projected 7-day profit: +7.92%
9. Cosmos (ATOM): Projected 7-day profit: +4.95%
10. USD Coin (USDC): Projected 7-day profit: N/A

The average projected 7-day profit is +12.51%.

Portfolio Starting Value

The Nomics ML Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Decentralized Finance Index Strategy

The Coin Market Cap DeFi Index Strategy uses the asset market caps combined with the Decentralized Finance asset tag that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

The DeFi Index was the best performing portfolio this week. With AVAX, LUNA, XTZ and FTM all doing extremely well this past week, it’s little surprise that the DeFi index benefited disproportionally over the other portfolios.

Portfolio Allocations

1. Avalanche (AVAX): 18.79% Allocation (adjusted from 9.92%)
2. Terra (LUNA): 18.45% Allocation (adjusted from 18.11%)
3. Uniswap (UNI): 17.68% Allocation (adjusted from 22.15%)
4. Chainlink (LINK): 13.29% Allocation (adjusted from 15.18%)
5. Tezos (XTZ): 6.54% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)
6. Pancake Swap (CAKE): 5.25% Allocation (adjusted from 6.75%)
7. AAVE (AAVE): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.34%)
8. Fantom (FTM): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)
9. The Graph (GRT): 5% Allocation
10. Maker (MKR): 5% Allocation

Removed

Sushiswap (SUSHI)

Compound (COMP)

Portfolio Starting Value

The DeFi Index Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Smart Contracts Index Strategy

The Coin Market Cap Smart Contracts Index Strategy uses the asset market caps combined with the Smart Contracts asset tag that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

The Smart Contracts index, much like the Shrimpy portfolio, was able to hold on to its value effectively throughout the week. AVAX and XTZ both did well this past week and helped the Smart Contracts index maintain at least some level of profitability.

Portfolio Allocations

1. Ethereum (ETH): 25.% Allocation (adjusted from 25.01%)
2. Cardano (ADA): 25% Allocation
3. Avalanche (AVAX): 10.5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.11%)
4. Chainlink (LINK): 7.43% Allocation (adjusted from 9.36%)
5. Algorand (ALGO): 7.07% Allocation (adjusted from 5%)
6. Stellar (XLM): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.69%)
7. Ethereum Classic (ETC): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.52%)
8. VeChain (VET): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.31%)
9. EOS (EOS): 5% Allocation
10. Tezos (XTZ): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)

Removed

1. NEO (NEO)

Portfolio Starting Value

The Smart Contracts Index Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Conclusions

As China cracks down on cryptocurrencies (yet again), the market has shown a surprising resilience to losing such a major (arguably vital) piece of the volume puzzle. With the recent explosion in popularity of decentralized exchanges and DeFi products and services, it’s rather easy to connect the dots as to why that may be. Thus far, Nomics has shown strength when the bulls are running, and grace when the bears have come out while the other portfolios have each had their own struggles in various ways. That said, all it takes is one really good pick to make up for lost time. Will Shrimpy or the Indices be able to catch up before Nomics takes aim at the moon? We can’t say at this point, but we’re excited to find out!

We recommend you check back every week to see how the results are progressing!

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About us

Shrimpy is an automated portfolio management platform that helps cryptocurrency investors manage their capital through the use of a simple and intuitive app that saves time and money with the power of automation.

To find out more about our platform and discover how it can jumpstart your crypto journey, feel free to visit our main website.

We also provide free blockchain education to the masses at the Shrimpy Academy and Youtube.